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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-07-13T04:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-07-13T04:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17284/-1
CME Note: Visible in SE of SOHO LASCO/C2 beginning 2021-07-13T04:24Z and in SW of STEREO A COR2 beginning 2021-07-13T09:53Z. May be associated with EUV wave and dimming just NW of AR 12841 (near S10E30) visible in SDO AIA 171 beginning 2021-07-13T01:39Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-07-16T13:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/17288/1
Model Inputs:
2021-07-13T04:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-28.0, Lat.=-7.0, Speed=423.0, HalfAngle=28.0, Time21.5=2021-07-13T13:53Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-07-16T13:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-07-16T12:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210713_135300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210713_135300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210713_135300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210713_135300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210713_135300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210713_135300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210713_135300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210713_135300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210713_135300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210713_135300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210713_135300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210713_135300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210713_135300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210713_135300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210713_135300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210713_135300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 67.57 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2021-07-13T17:26Z

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